South Sudan's humanitarian catastrophe

...not to mention political challenges on a grand scale

On Tuesday this week I enjoyed a constructive meeting at the UK Foreign Office about the UK's South Sudan policy, in the shadow of a humanitarian crisis and delayed elections.

I can't share all the details of what was a closed-door discussion with the South Sudan NGO working group, the British embassy in Juba, and UK Special Representative for South Sudan Clare Staunton, but given the recent (and justified) attention on Sudan, I thought it important that the plight of neighbouring South Sudan not be neglected.

The humanitarian crisis

A few statistics stand out:

➡ 9 million people (75% of the population) are classified as "in need", including 1.7 million malnourished children, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA)

➡ 1.3 million people have been affected by flooding (UNOCHA), which has displaced 700,000 people (Ministry of Water)

➡ 2 million people in South Sudan are internally displaced (UNOCHA) - largely due to flooding and conflict

➡ more than 800,000 people have fled to South Sudan to escape the conflict in neighbouring Sudan (UNOCHA)

➡ the shutdown of a pipeline exporting oil, which provides the vast majority of South Sudan’s national income and almost all export income, caused a 50% drop in the value of the South Sudanese Pound against the US Dollar (Bloomberg)

Barriers to aid

The meeting cast light on the increasing challenges faced by the local population in South Sudan and by the NGOs trying to provide medical and humanitarian support, including:

➡ "skyrocketing" prices, particularly for fuel, affecting the delivery of medical and humanitarian aid

➡ an increase in crime and violent crime caused by displacement, poverty and desperation

➡ an increase in demands for cash payments on the "parallel economy"

➡ dwindling funding for NGOs, and a lack of attention on South Sudan due to dire conflicts elsewhere, including Sudan, the Middle East and Ukraine

➡ international arms shipments into Sudan trickling through to South Sudan

➡ the dire situation for Sudanese refugees arriving in South Sudan, many of whom came with nothing, and others who sold their belongings only to find that even that was not enough to live on

Policy challenges

In terms of policy, the situation is complicated not only by the other global-level political, economic and diplomatic challenges competing for attention, but also due to South Sudan’s political stasis.

The latest (already much delayed) date for elections was set for December, but has now been postponed a further two years. There have been no national-level elections in the country since 2010 - before the creation of South Sudan in July 2011.

The decision to delay the polls has provoked mixed feelings. On one hand there is a sense of relief that stems from the clear lack of necessary preparations to carry out a national vote, and the country’s febrile atmosphere. On the other hand there is the lingering suspicion that although a two-year delay could be a realistic framework to prepare for elections (not least by conducting the country’s first census since 2008), a two-year delay is also far enough away that it feels it may never happen.

In the meantime, the political landscape is fractured and peace is never more than fragile. Many of the terms of peace agreements signed in 2015 and 2018 remain unfulfilled - as do some from the 2005 peace agreement that became the foundation for South Sudan’s creation.

To quote the spirit of the room rather than anyone in particular, this could be the South Sudan government's "last chance" to demonstrate the political will to move forward in concert with those who seek to support its development.